fast-regime graduation probability
awaiting launch data no ca assigned
the observed sample baseline and reproduced model are ready. 832942 receives no probability until its live contract address and launch data are available. the estimate will be limited to the collector's five-minute event window; longer horizons will not be extrapolated.
We studied 832,941 launches. 832942 is the experiment.
on the name
The name begins where our research sample ends.
In our report, we analyzed 832,941 Pump.fun launches observed between 8 May and 10 June 2026. The number is not Pump.fun's total launch count, and 832942 is not presented as the platform's literal next token. It is the symbolic next case: the point where our observation leaves the report and enters the market.
832,941 formed our sample. 832942 is the experiment.
on the research
Our collector observed launches from 8 May to 10 June 2026. A later audit showed that its effective coverage was concentrated in roughly the first six minutes after each launch. The reported graduation rate therefore describes this fast regime and is a lower bound on the true 24-hour rate.
Within that window, visible external links and an initial market capitalization above the platform's 30 SOL default were associated with different graduation outcomes. These relationships describe the observed sample and window.
A second study approached the same question from inside the bonding curve. It estimated graduation probability from the current amount of bonded SOL and the path taken to reach it. Fast capital accumulation through fewer trades was its strongest additional signal; bot-dominated activity was generally associated with lower graduation probability at later stages.
These are predictive associations, not proof that any condition causes graduation. Neither paper contains a formula that can force the market to succeed.
on the thesis
A memecoin is collective emotion made visible through price. A name, an image and a shared moment cause strangers to move in the same direction.
Under that emotion sits a mathematical competition. Capital arrives at a rate. Buyers form a distribution. Attention converts into liquidity or fails to. Every launch traces a path through the same variables, but no two paths resolve in exactly the same way.
Emotion creates motion. Structure shapes probability.
on the signals
The research does not reduce a launch to one magic variable. It describes a sequence. The token begins with a set of visible conditions, capital starts to enter, trades establish a pace, and the bonding curve records whether attention is accumulating or dissolving.
832942 will place those conditions around one public launch. Some are known at creation. Others emerge only after trading begins. We will preserve that distinction, because a signal observed after momentum appears must not be presented as if it had been known beforehand.
The experiment will also separate reported associations from our own hypotheses. A variable may improve prediction without causing success. It may describe the crowd that arrived rather than the reason the crowd arrived.
- window
- the early launch period in which each measurement applies
- capital
- initial market capitalization and the current amount of bonded SOL
- velocity
- how many trades and how much time were required to reach the current curve state
- presence
- whether verified external links are displayed at launch
- behavior
- bot-like activity, historically successful traders and creator actions
- outcome
- whether the bonding curve ultimately graduates
Measure the launch in the order the market reveals it.
on the model
The model does not predict a price, a return or a cultural moment. It asks a narrower question: given the information available at a defined point in time, how often did comparable launches complete the bonding curve inside the same observation window?
Our first displayed estimate will use the released 832,941-launch dataset and its reproducible launch-state model. It is calibrated only to the fast regime captured by that collector. The live path can later be described using curve progress and trading velocity, but it will not be folded into the same number unless the required data can support a separately calibrated model.
x(0) = { initial capital, presence, description }
p5 = P(graduation ≤ 5 min | x(0))
// calculated only after the live ca exists
The value will remain unassigned until the real contract address and launch transaction exist. Once calculated, the inputs, model version, sample size and time horizon will be published beside it so that the number can be challenged and reproduced.
A probability is not a promise. Graduation means the bonding curve completed and liquidity migrated. It does not mean the token is safe, valuable or profitable, and it does not convert uncertainty into destiny.
on the experiment
One token cannot validate a theory built from hundreds of thousands of observations. It is not a second dataset, and a successful outcome would not prove the model correct. What one token can do is make the entire procedure visible as a single public case.
The premise, variables and reporting rules are fixed before the outcome is known. At launch, the contract address establishes the object of study. The first transaction establishes time zero. From there, the chain becomes the record: capital, trades, curve state and terminal result can be reconstructed without relying on a retrospective story.
- 01
- launch 832942 on Pump.fun
- 02
- observe its market path from the first transaction
- 03
- compare the path with the signals described by the research
- 04
- record graduation or failure without changing the premise
- 05
- publish the complete experimental report
The report will include the inputs used, the observations excluded, the model output and the final outcome. If collection fails or a field cannot be verified, that absence will be recorded rather than silently replaced.
The rules come first. The result comes later.
on the substrate
Solana is not merely where the token exists. It is the experiment's public clock and append-only record. Creation, transfers and program interactions are ordered into a history that can be inspected independently of this website.
Pump.fun supplies a more controlled starting point than an arbitrary market launch: a common program, standardized initial mechanics, a bonding curve and a defined migration event. Tokens still differ radically in narrative and participants, but their early paths pass through comparable infrastructure.
That combination turns the launch into a compact observable system. The community supplies the emotion. The curve records the capital. The chain preserves the sequence. The report binds those records to the claim we made before trading began.
- sample
- 832,941 launches observed from 8 May to 10 June 2026
- case
- 832942
- chain
- Solana
- venue
- Pump.fun
- outcome
- unknown
on the outcome
832942 may graduate quickly, graduate outside the measured fast window, or never graduate at all. Those are different outcomes and they will not be collapsed into a convenient binary story after the fact.
If it graduates, the result will not prove that a formula created demand. If it fails, the result will not erase the statistical structure found across the original sample. A probabilistic claim is judged by its calibration across cases, not by pretending that one case was certain.
Nothing will be declared inevitable in advance, and nothing unsuccessful will be omitted afterward. The report will preserve the forecast made at launch, the path that followed and the point at which the experiment resolved.
Our report observed the market. Now the experiment enters it.